The Russian-Ukrainian war has burned the chip industry chain, and how much will it affect the world?
Under the sound of gunfire, the conflict crisis between Russia and Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis) has further impacted the already fragile chip semiconductor industry chain, and will make the global “core shortage” after more than a year worse.According to a recent report by Reuters, chip lithography giant ASML (ASML), which has a market value of over $260 billion, is looking for other sources of neon gas supply in case the conflict between Russia and Ukraine causes supply disruptions.At the same time, affected by the U.S. announcement of export sanctions against Russia, major chip and IT companies announced that they had stopped doing business with Russia.
The Washington Post and other media reported that due to compliance with new export control regulations. Intel, Dell, etc. have all suspended product deliveries to Russia.
The foundry leader TSMC announced that it will suspend the OEM of Elbrus chips for Russian companies, as well as suspend the export of products and all sales to Russia.
The price of neon gas needed by ASML rises, or pushes up chip costs
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U.S. DRAM memory chip giant Micron Technology later said that the escalation of the Ukraine crisis has highlighted the complexity and vulnerability of the semiconductor supply chain.
Electronic special gas is called the blood of modern electronic industry, mainly used in semiconductor, liquid crystal display, crystalline silicon solar cell, optical fiber and other fields. Among them, neon (Ne) is an element used in rare gas technology for semiconductor lithography, especially deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV).These rare gases can be used in the production of excimer laser light sources and semiconductor etching in ArF and KrF lithography machines respectively.They are mainly used in DUV process technology of mature 250~130nm process of 8-inch wafers, but based on Intel’s 10nm manufacturing process The CPU also relies on neon gas.
Although the proportion of inert gases used in the semiconductor manufacturing process is not as high as that of other industries, neon, xenon, and krypton are indispensable process gases in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, and the stability of the supply chain is extremely important.As a major supplier of semiconductor raw materials in the world, Ukraine is a major supplier of gases including neon, argon, krypton, and xenon, among which the supply of neon is the global market leader.
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A report released by the research agency Omdia recently pointed out that Ukraine has important gas product companies such as Iceblick, Ingas and Cryoin, accounting for more than 70% of the global supply of neon, while the global supply of krypton (Kr) and xenon (Xe) The shares reach 40% and 30% respectively, while less than 20% of the neon gas used by ASML comes from the country.
In addition, Russia’s palladium is also an important raw material for semiconductors, mainly used in packaging, and is used in the manufacture of sensors and memory. Russia accounts for about 40% of global palladium supply.
Techcet, a market research institution, said that semiconductor manufacturers are highly dependent on special raw materials such as C4F6 (hexafluorobutadiene), neon, and palladium from Russia and Ukraine.
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Therefore, the conflict crisis between Russia and Ukraine has affected ASML’s lithography equipment manufacturing and procurement, and US sanctions against Russia are affecting local chip sales. So how far will the Russia-Ukraine crisis affect the semiconductor supply chain?
The current Russian-Ukrainian crisis has a limited impact on the industrial chain of the global semiconductor giants, mainly because the chip giants have increased their stockpiling efforts and have not faced a shortage of their own chips.However, the rising prices of some neon gas may have a certain impact on small and medium-sized semiconductor companies, and further observations are needed for the follow-up development.
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More than 90% of the supply of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon gas comes from Ukraine. % of the palladium comes from Russia.In the opinion of industry insiders, the increasingly complicated situation in Russia and Ukraine may impact the supply of inert gas in the region.
Although it will not cause interruption of production lines in the short term, the reduction in gas supply may still cause prices to rise, and semiconductor production costs may rise as a result.If the subsequent conflict between Russia and Ukraine further escalates, it is likely to cause tight supply of related rare gases, thereby pushing up the cost of the chip industry chain.
U.S. sanctions against Russia have limited the cost of the industry chain due to the “lack of cores” of major chip manufacturers
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Many of the sanctioned Russian banks have been unable to use Apple’s Apple Pay and Google’s Google Pay services for their customers.
In response to the situation in Ukraine, starting on February 25, the United States introduced a number of new export controls against Russia, saying that semiconductors, computers, telecommunications, information security equipment, lasers and sensors will be subject to the new ban.
In this regard, Intel, TSMC, Dell, Apple, Google and other important technology companies have suspended cooperation with Russian companies.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) of the United States announced on its official website that they are evaluating the new rules for the global semiconductor industry. Impact.
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On February 27, the “Russian Business Consulting” (RBC) reported that two IT market sources reported that US CPU companies Intel and AMD have suspended shipments to Russia.
One of the sources said Intel and AMD verbally told Russian customers that their products could not be shipped to Russia for the time being, and that Chinese partners had been notified by Intel about the ban on supplying processors to Russia.At the same time, the Russian Association of Electronics Developers and Manufacturers (ARPE) also confirmed the news that Intel and AMD were “discontinued”.
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According to the Russian Central Bank, VTB Group, Sovcombank, Noikombank, Promsvyazbank and Otkritie and other sanctioned Russian banks have been unable to use Apple Pay and Google Pay services for their customers.
It is worth mentioning that, according to the Washington Post report, TSMC also announced that it will no longer manufacture and ship to Elbrus, a small Russian ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) chip design company.
According to Titanium Media App, most of Russia’s main dual-use core CPUs still use Intel platforms.
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Therefore, some people in the industry believe that the production, manufacturing and procurement sources of Russian semiconductors come from companies such as TSMC and Intel in the United States, and most of them are mature processes.The risk of chip supply interruption may affect the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the semiconductor field such as Elbrus.According to China Electronics News, Ju Long, global vice president of the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) and president of China, said that if the supply of raw materials from Ukraine is not resolved in the short term.
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis may affect the operations of some small and medium-sized companies. certain influence.
The main reason is that most suppliers will give priority to ensuring the supply of large customers. If there is a shortage of supply, the supply of small companies may not be replenished in time.However, at this stage, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has not caused huge damage to major chip companies and the entire industrial chain, and it has not significantly reflected the price of chips.